March Severe Weather Climatology: How likely are tornadoes and hail this time of year?

TULSA, Okla. — FOX23 Meteorologist Michael Grogan says March is when Green Country starts to see severe weather occurrences increase in the area as warmer air and instability pairs with strong wind shear. This results in about four tornadoes on average statewide.

Some years have no tornadoes during March in Oklahoma, but others have significant ones.

On March 30, 2016, an E-F2 tornado struck Owasso and pointed eastward.

On March 25, 2015, an E-F2 tornado that struck Sand Springs.

It is four times more likely to have a tornado in March than February, but it is three times as likely to have tornadoes in April than March as conditions continue to get more favorable.

Hail also occurs once every four years or so in a given location around Tulsa in March. April is the most likely month for hail to occur in the area.

There is no severe weather in our immediate forecast, but some large hail may come with the incoming storm system Thursday night in western Oklahoma.

Michael Grogan, FOX23 Severe Weather Team

Mike is a native Tulsan and thrilled to continue his career in Green Country here at FOX23. From tornado outbreaks to winter storms, he has forecasted it all in Tulsa since April 2011. Before that, he covered weather in the Mid-Atlantic states from Hagerstown, Maryland.